of that name and former NetGuide columnist (until CMP Media Inc. dispersed it among its other publications).
And here's what we asked them:
1997 - What do you think were the most important developments on and concerning the Web this past year - especially those of interest to families online?
1998 - What trends should we be looking for going into '98? Where's the Web headed, in terms of children's use in school and at home, family use, consumers, mainstream North America, etc.?
1997
David McClure....
"There were three significant developments for families this year.
"First, we saw the emergence of family-oriented sites and services as a distinct category and market. The Web began to mature a bit, turning attention away from early Web ventures such as videocams trained on fishtanks toward meaningful and fun family content. In this category I would include not only services like Disney Online and Nickelodeon, but also the significant effort America Online has put into children's content. Beyond kids programming, more news and information sites, more educational sites, and similar efforts have made the Web more family-friendly.
"Second has been the explosive growth of online education, schools online, and distance learning. Today, families can enjoy the experience of education from their own homes, in every possible subject, from adult education and fun courses to advanced degrees. They are able to access school information and schedules, homework assistance, and other support services from their local school districts. In some areas, cameras have been set up for Web access so that parents can see their children in the classroom.
"Finally, we saw much progress toward ratings and parental control devices. The industry has worked very hard on the PICS-based ratings standard [see netparents.org's description], and on the development of controls that can help families make better decisions about what to view. We are not where we want to be as an industry on these issues, but the progress we have made in this year alone is substantial."
Idit Harel....
"Consumer Market: More families bought and/or upgraded computers and came online (flat pricing plans helped!).
"Culture: Imagery surrounding the 'mainstreaming' of computers - and even more so the Internet - has permeated traditional advertising and media. It's not just being covered in the news; more important, it's becoming woven into the fabric of everyday culture. E-Trade ads are on ER; URLs are on our car radios, buses, and taxicabs. Internet brands blend into our day-to-day: Amazon, CNet, GeoCities, iVillage, MaMaMedia.
"Attitudes: Consciousness is beginning to shift from 'fear of the unknown' to 'need to have' the Internet.
"Consumer Needs: Online has started to become a preferred place to get certain types of information (e.g. stock quotes for the individual investor, parenting advice from other single parents) and to do certain types of activities for learning and fun - because of the searchability, segmentation, filters, and other cool tools. Dynamic content and Web add-ons (ActiveX, Java, Shockwave, and JavaScript) hint at the potential for interactivity.
"Brands: The Web gained 'legitimacy' via established brands (e.g., Disney launched several sites; companies like P&G and Toys R Us are advertising online).
"Education/Policy: Schools now know they can't ignore the 'Net as a powerful medium for children's learning and educational change. However, concerns for kids' safety with respect to ads, purchasing, and privacy are blocking the ability to integrate quality content/activities for kids in schools. A variety of security and screening programs are emerging as options to 'protect' kids. Unfortunately, this has some policymakers and educators questioning computers and technology altogether, rather than questioning the schools themselves and existing educational and learning methods."
Liz Randolph....
"The most important developments on and concerning the Web in the past year are vast and varied. First, I think that for families, the steady emergence of local-content ventures that aggregate everything from local events to the next day's weather or school lunch menu are extremely positive for families using the Web. Services like the Family Education Network which essentially offers every school district in the country the opportunity to use the Web to connect families to their educational community are ways that the Web is being used to foster better communications both on and offline. It also attempts to foster parents' understanding of curriculum and their child's learning. As far as other types of local content, I just think that giving convenience to parents in addition to bringing new information and ideas to enables families to make use of the medium.
"Some interesting developments in the shopping space have emerged this year to maximize the medium for families. Sites like EToys and Viacom's RedRocket make shopping for parents fast and also give them editorial insight into what toys are appropriate for certain ages and areas of interest.
"An attentiveness to safety issues for kids on the Web both on the part of industry players and the government has created a dialogue on the subject that seems to be going in the right direction. Rather than block kids from the Web, the direction this dialogue appears to be taking is imaginative and intended to organize the Web in clear and positive ways. While I believe we are still far from actualizing this 'organized Web,' I think the industry has good intentions and is aware that children are being affected by the development of this medium, whether they know it or not - and that the idea is not to inhibit them, but to create a place that fosters the best possible use of the medium. By the way, I don't think any of the current filtering technologies, blocking software, or rating systems will end up being the standard or final solution to this issue.
"The launch of Disney's Daily Blast was an important development in the kids market this year as well. Without having yet put its full marketing force behind it, the service is getting significant subscriptions and proving the concept that, for kids, the subscription model might work. It suggests that kids, like business users for the Wall St. Journal, or sports fans for fantasy sports sites, are a premium audience, and that parents are willing to pay extra for quality content for their children. Disney also is, perhaps painstakingly, creating a safe community for kids, which is a first so far.
"Girls have been incorporated, over the past year, into much of the marketing and targeting of technology to kids. This has been a result of a few pioneers: Mattel, Nickelodeon, AOL, Purple Moon, and GirlGames are a handful. But this progress has bled into the marketing and advertising of Internet access and other types of games as well."
Robert Seidman....
"I think that the most important thing happening for parents of online kids isn't a new technology or use of current technology. The most important thing from my perspective is the increasing realization that the Internet can't cure all ills. It will not fix relationships between children and parents and does nothing by itself to ensure a better education. The Internet did not change the need for good parents, good teachers, and good schools. But given good parents and good teachers, the world is better off with the Internet than without it."
We asked him why the world is better off with the Internet, and his answer was: "The 'why' ranges from very simple (it's a really great research tool) to new possibilities that didn't exist before (you can get in touch with people around the world to discuss various subjects, etc. [see our Oct. issue for examples] - so, if you're doing a report on new DNA studies, the possibility to e-mail someone working on the study and get a response is pretty good) to very complex. I believe there are things that the Internet will allow that we haven't even begun to think of yet.
"But its capability as a research tool is phenomenal. It's not just the bland coverage you'd typically get in an encyclopedia. The Internet opens up quick access to a variety of views on many subjects. The result is that, regardless of what you think, you have quick access to get a very broad perspective on a topic that will help you better decide for yourself where you stand. Of course, that assumes a desire to learn, and the Internet won't create that. But it will accommodate that desire in ways that did not exist before."
1998
David McClure....
"Look for the Web to become more settled. Remember that new frontiers are settled by explorers and mountain men. The lifestyle is rough, the job is lonely, and there is little glory or reward. But if they can open the frontier, the settlers will come. And settlers bring civilization. They build sidewalks and fences, churches and schools. They create shops and stores, and begin to sell or trade products and services. And they pass the laws they need to protect the community.
"The settlers are arriving on the frontier we call the Internet, and they are changing the landscape. The challenge we face in 1998 is to get the stores and schools and churches built. And to pass the laws we need without trampling on our neighbors. So in the year ahead you will see more efforts to ensure that Internet services are available in every corner of the country. You'll see us begin to come to terms with new laws for the Internet, on the subjects of taxation and copyright, and on safety and privacy.
"This will not always be good news. As with every new frontier, the Internet has its share of opportunists who will attempt to use this new medium to their own advantage. In Washington, we can expect to see the usual share of silly legislation, wailing special interests, and interminable meetings - all in the name of families and children. But saner heads generally prevail, and we can expect to see some real advances in addition to the endless political posturing and blather.
"The most significant development of 1998? Bandwidth. Real, glorious, 1 Mbps or faster throughput available nationwide at a reasonable cost. Whether this is via ISDN, xDSL, satellite, cable, or Dixie-Cups-and-string remains to be seen. But the FCC is working hard to encourage the deployment of new technologies for faster and better access to the Internet. And that means more services - video from the classroom, Shakespeare live over the Internet, and information flowing at incredible speeds."
Idit Harel....
"Consumer Market: Even more families will get new computers and upgrade old computers; and more families will purchase multiple computers for their households. We will see more inter-generational communication using technology. TV usage will decline further, especially among Internet kids who will demand to control their media experience and self-publish on the 'Net.
"Brands: Internet brands start to displace traditional brands where knowledge of the medium and the modern consumer becomes a key to success. Brands that have successfully leveraged other media won't fare as well leveraging the Internet. Internet-born brands will start to move into traditional media.
"Attitudes: The 'need to have' will become the 'need to always have' (the machine is always on). Learning and technology are no longer just for geeks and academics - they become fashionable, everywhere, anytime. Learning and technological fluency are hip.
"Consumer Needs: Online starts to be the only place to get certain types of information (special offers, timely or customized data, government information) and activity-based programming. The mainstream is no longer afraid of online transactions as well as personalized programming.
"Education/Policy: Schools start to break out of 'computer labs' and 'computer teacher' mentalities (though teachers are probably still afraid). Teacher-training (teacher-learning) programs make a serious commitment to technology integration. Schools figure out that using technology is vital for children's development in 'the information age,' and so the cost is not debatable (besides it's so much cheaper, when it's done right!).
"Learning: A lot of kids are actually more interested in learning because of the Internet, and technology at large. Computers and the Internet will be recognized as one of many powerful tools for educational change and for a learning revolution. New solutions for cheaper hardware and affordable Internet appliances will transform many of the 'have-nots' to 'haves.' "
Liz Randolph....
"I'm no one to predict next week's trends, much less next year's, but I'll give it a go.
"I think 1998 will bring rapid growth of use of the Web in schools and the integration of Web content with current curriculum and traditional teaching tools.
"I think advertising that targets kids will not necessarily grow as a revenue source for content developers. Instead, other streams will be more meaningful for the kids market, such as commerce (remember kids wield $100 billion in purchasing power - of course, actual purchases, online as well as offline, are done by the parents), and subscriptions [see what she says in "1997" about this]. Advertisers, if they are to stay involved in subsidizing this medium, will have to develop a brand-new creative model to suit the specific sensibility of kids. They will have to come up with a creative model that both clearly delineates content from advertising as well as has a better branding impact.
"I think we will see better and more safe online communities for kids. People will start to spend money for their kids to be in safe places online (see GirlGames' Tiara Club Lounge), and developers will finally succumb to the fact that, in order for kids community to work (and it is one of kids' favorite aspects of the medium), they will have to spend much more on monitoring and editorial direction. Disney will be a leader in this space.
"As I said above, I also think 1998 will bring more booming commerce ventures, making it the driver of online revenues.
"Overall, I think content will undergo a process of honing and fine-tuning."
Robert Seidman....
"As for the coming year, usage of the Web at home by children and parents will increase, on average. I believe in 1998 we'll begin to see a trend of more services/sites that are designed from the bottom up to be geared towards serving the whole family. These services will have offerings that cater not only to the individual family members, but to the family group as a whole."
Two more, in brief
In recent interviews on other subjects, we asked two other Web insiders - Jerry Berman, executive director of the Center for Democracy & Technology, and Tom Steinert-Threlkeld, editor-in-chief of Interactive Week - what stood out to them about '97 and '98.
Jerry Berman:
On the most important developments on the Web this past year: "I think the most important thing is ... the explosion in participation and the growing awareness of the Web and 'Net as a new medium. It is this growing participation that will help sort out these issues [on safety, privacy, law-enforcement, etc.]. When we began the battle against CDA [the Federal Communications Decency Act that the US Supreme Court struck down last June], we couldn't get a hearing in Congress about what the bill was about. Now there's a dialogue and efforts of different constituencies to keep the dialogue going. People across the 'Net are saying this is where we're going - we're going to be on the 'Net. You can't create a good policy without the lights on; policymakers can no longer avoid the subject."
Tom Steinert-Threlkeld:
"The filters are out there. The pornography issue should not be an issue if you're doing your job as a parent. The biggest thing that's resolved itself in a way is that vices are going to be the big drivers of the 'Net for the next three to five years - AOL and CompuServe are going to the summit but at same time are setting up pretty salacious areas in their services. The Interactive Services Association trade group is very much trying to change the 'Net into the 'World Wide Gambling Parlor.'
"The good news for the average family is free e-mail. The primary driver of use of the 'Net still is e-mail, and there are any number of good companies willing to provide it free if people are willing to look at some ads along the way."
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We would appreciate any feedback you might have for our Web seers; do you have a different vision for 1998? We'll be happy, with your permission, to forward your thoughts to our seers for comment in a future issue or for a future Sage Extra! Please e-mail us at feedback@sageway.com (we gleefully read and respond to all e-mail - and not just in New Year's resolutions!).
Have a joyous holiday season and a New Year filled with promise.
Next month: Spam and other e-mail vagaries - one element of this month's discussions in Washington. We'll talk to experts on what to do and to parents on what they are doing!
